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Political Discrimination as Normative as Racial Divisions once were

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

Once upon a time, it was socially normative for society to divide itself along racial lines.  Thankfully, that time has passed and while racism still exists, it is generally considered to be a bad thing by most people in society.  The same trajectory is occurring with respect to attitudes toward homosexuals, with increased acceptance being not only encouraged, but mandated as the right thing to do.  However, in many circles, it remains normative for individuals to discriminate against those with the opposite political views.  Recent research indicates that this occurs amongst both parties.

Despite ample research linking conservatism to discrimination and liberalism to tolerance, both groups may discriminate. In two studies, we investigated whether conservatives and liberals support discrimination against value violators, and whether liberals’ and conservatives’ values distinctly affect discrimination. Results demonstrated that liberals and conservatives supported discrimination against ideologically dissimilar groups, an effect mediated by perceptions of value violations. Liberals were more likely than conservatives to espouse egalitarianism and universalism, which attenuated their discrimination; whereas the conservatives’ value of traditionalism predicted more discrimination, and their value of self-reliance predicted less discrimination. This suggests liberals and conservatives are equally likely to discriminate against value violators, but liberal values may ameliorate discrimination more than conservative values.

In addition, recent research out of Stanford University indicates that “hostile feelings for the opposing party are ingrained or automatic in voters’ minds, and that affective polarization based on party is just as strong as polarization based on race.”  Tackling this at the societal level is a daunting task for anyone, but there are things that one can do at the individual level.  Both research and practice indicates that positive relationships between individuals across such divides are likely to ameliorate such feelings.  Mixing group boundaries are likely to make competition less salient as well, perhaps allowing superordinate goals that we all share to come to the fore, as often happens when national emergencies strike.  Just as with discrimination based on race and sexual orientation, discrimination against opposing ideologies can be combated with similar techniques.

- Ravi Iyer

 

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Ranker World Cup Predictions Outperform Betfair & FiveThirtyEight

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

Former England international player turned broadcaster Gary Lineker famously said “Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.” That proved true for the 2014 World Cup, with a late German goal securing a 1-0 win over Argentina.

Towards the end of March, we posted predictions for the final ordering of teams in the World Cup, based on Ranker’s re-ranks and voting data. During the tournament, we posted an update, including comparisons with predictions made by FiveThirtyEight and Betfair. With the dust settled in Brazil (and the fireworks in Berlin shelved), it is time to do a final evaluation.

Our prediction was a little different from many others, in that we tried to predict the entire final ordering of all 32 teams. This is different from sites like Betfair, which provided an ordering in terms of the predicted probability each team would be the overall winner. In order to assess our order against the true final result, we used a standard statistical measure called partial tau. It is basically an error measure — 0 would be a perfect prediction, and the larger the value grows the worse the prediction — based on how many “swaps” of a predicted order need to be made to arrive at the true order. The “partial” part of partial tau allows for the fact that the final result of the tournament is not a strict ordering. While the final and 3rd place play-off determined the order of the first four teams: Germany, Argentina, the Netherlands, and Brazil, other groups of teams are effectively tied from then on.  All of the teams eliminated in the quarter finals can be regarded as having finished in equal fifth place. All of the teams eliminated in the first game past the group stage finished equal sixth. And all of the 32 teams eliminated in group play finished equal last.

The model we used to make our predictions involved three sources of information. The first was the ranks and re-ranks provided by users. The second was the up and down votes provided by users. The third was the bracket structure of the tournament itself. As we emphasized in our original post, the initial group stage structure of the World Cup provides strong constraints on where teams can and cannot finish in the final order. Thus, we were interested to test how our model predictions depended on each sources of information. This lead to a total of 8 separate models

  • Random: Using no information, but just placing all 32 teams in a random order.
  • Bracket: Using no information beyond the bracket structure, placing all the teams in an order that was a possible finish, but treating each game as a coin toss.
  • Rank: Using just the ranking data.
  • Vote: Using just the voting data.
  • Rank+Vote: Using the ranking and voting data, but not the bracket structure.
  • Bracket+Vote: Using the voting data and bracket structure, but not the ranking data.
  • Bracket+Rank: Using the ranking data and bracket structure, but not the voting data.
  • Rank+Vote+Bracket: Using all of the information, as per the predictions made in our March blog post.

We also considered the Betfair and FiveThirtyEight rankings, as well as the Ranker Ultimate List at the start of the tournament, as interesting (but maybe slightly unfair, given their different goals) comparisons. The partial taus for all these predictions, with those based on less information on the left, and those based on more information on the right, are shown in the graph below. Remember, lower is better.

The prediction we made using the votes, ranks, and bracket structure out-performed Betfair, FiveThirtyEight, and the Ranker Ultimate List. This is almost certainly because of the use of the bracket information. Interestingly, just using the ranking and bracket structure information, but not the votes, resulted in a slightly better prediction. It seems as if our modeling needs to improve how it benefits from using both ranking and voting data. The Rank+Vote prediction was worse than either source alone. It is also interesting to note that the Bracket information by itself is not useful — it performs almost as poorly as a random order — but it is powerful when combined with people’s opinions, as the improvement from Rank to Bracket+Rank and from Vote to Bracket+Vote show.

The post Ranker World Cup Predictions Outperform Betfair & FiveThirtyEight appeared first on The Ranker.com Blog.

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Selfies at Funerals, Genius Shower Thoughts + Inadvertently Hilarious Kids

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

We’ve been having a blast reading about all of the ridiculous and thought provoking things you’ve been ranking this summer. Some of these are too good not to share. Check ‘em out!

49 Stellar Cosplay Costumes From This Year’s Comic Con
Comic Con was awesome this year! The best costumes we saw showcased some serious attention to detail (and blatant disregard for heat and comfort). Check ‘em out and rank accordingly!

50 Incredible Pictures That Just Might Teach You Something
This photo gallery includes pictures of natural phenomena, manmade things, the goings-on inside our own bodies, and tons of other cool sh*t that might even teach you a thing or two. The universe is pretty amazing. Let’s look at it together!

50+ Signs That Will Definitely Make You Giggle
These funny signs range from the whimsical, to the witty, to the downright stupid. In an age where image is everything, you would think people would be more careful with their signage.

34 Things Every Man Should Know. Seriously, Take Notes.
Dudes. Guys. MEN. When it comes to the male gender, there are certain things all guys simply must know. Whether its for your own personal safety or to not look like an idiot in public, take a moment to learn these things.

Kids Who Answered Wrong, But Deserve An “A” For Effort
Kids these days, can’t live with ‘em, can’t teach ‘em anything because the Internet shows them that they can be a smartass instead of submitting real quiz answers.

This is Real: Selfies at Funerals Are Officially a Thing
Of all the occasions to commemorate with a selfie, it would seem funerals aren’t exactly the most appropriate. But these selfie lovers don’t seem to mind. In many occasions, their dearly departed is even in the photo with them!

The Greatest Shower Thoughts Ever Thought
We (most of us) bathe in quiet solitude, with neither friends nor social media to entertain us lest we get our devices wet and ruin them. Amidst all that lathering and rinsing, the mind wanders, and for the duration of each shower, anything is possible.

Yesterday’s Technology With Today’s Prices
Ever wonder how much it would cost to buy a Gameboy if it was released today? Or what people were paying for the privilege of having a cell phone when they first came out? This may stop you from complaining for a while.

The post Selfies at Funerals, Genius Shower Thoughts + Inadvertently Hilarious Kids appeared first on The Ranker.com Blog.

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Overcoming The Psychological Barriers to Combining Realism with Idealism

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

I was recently forwarded this thoughtful article by Peter Wehner, from Commentary Magazine, that talks about the need for people to appreciate the importance of idealism in striving for policy goals as well as the realism of compromise with others who also have valid parts of the truth.  From the article:

Politics is an inherently messy business. Moreover, the American founders–who developed the concepts of checks and balances, separation of powers, and all the rest–wanted politics to be messy. …

Too often these days, zealous people who are in a hurry don’t appreciate that the process and methods of politics–the “messy,” muddling through side of politics–is a moral achievement of sorts. But this, too, is only part of the story.

The other part of the story is that justice is often advanced by people who are seized with a moral vision. They don’t much care about the prosaic side of governing; they simply want society to be better, more decent, and more respectful of human dignity. So yes, it’s important not to make the perfect the enemy of the good. But it’s also the case that politics requires us to strive for certain (unattainable) ideals….

What happens all too often in our politics is that people who are drawn to one tend to look with disdain on those who are drawn to the other. What we need, I think, is greater recognition that both are necessary, that each one alone is insufficient. Visionaries have to find a way to give their vision concrete expression, which requires deal-making, compromise, and accepting something less than the ideal. Legislators need to govern with some commitment to philosophical and moral ideals; otherwise, they’re just passing laws and cutting deals for their own sake.

Unfortunately, moral conviction is often negatively correlated with appreciating the need for compromise.  How then can we combine realism with idealism?  We here at CivilPolitics are actively supporting research to help understand how to remove these barriers to groups coming together despite moral disagreements and welcome contributions from academics who have good ideas.  Some ideas that have support in the research include improving the personal relationships between groups and introducing super-ordinate goals where moral agreement can occur.  In future months, we’ll be highlighting other recommendations along these lines to help combine realism with idealism.

- Ravi Iyer

 

 

 

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CivilPolitics.org comments on Hollande’s Political Strategy for BBC World

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

Earlier today, I appeared on BBC World’s Business Edition to comment on Francois Hollande’s efforts to unite union and business interests in working to improve the lagging French economy.  I provided the same advice that I often do to groups that are looking to leverage the more robust findings from social science in conflict resolution, specifically that rational arguments only get you so far and that real progress is often made when our emotions are pushing us toward progress, as opposed to working against us.  Accordingly, it often is better to try to get the relationships working first, in the hopes that that opens minds for agreement on factual issues.  As well, it is often helpful to emphasize super-ordinate goals, such as improving the economy as a whole in this case, as opposed to competitive goals such as hiring mandates.  Lastly, hopefully Hollande, as a socialist who is fighting for business interests, can help muddy the group boundaries that can make conflicts more intractable, providing an example of someone who is indeed focused on shared goals.

Below is the segment, and my appearance is about 2 minutes into the video.

- Ravi Iyer

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Ridiculously Good Looking Celebs Are Licking Popsicles, It Must Be Summer!

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

The Best Internet Reactions to Jeremy Meeks’s Sexy Mug Shot
Sexy mugshot photos reached a new high with the booking of the ridiculously hot felon Jeremy Meeks. If you somehow missed this gem of a story last week, you need to check these out.

Who Will Win The 2014 World Cup?
It’s official: the Ranker office has World Cup fever. And so do all of you apparently! Thousands have voted on who they think will win. You may be surprised at who’s currently on top.

24 Crazy Sexy Photos of Celebrities Eating Popsicles
It’s finally summer! When it’s hot, here’s the best possible way to cool off: with pictures of ridiculously great looking celebrities sucking down on cold, delicious, refreshing popsicles.

What Guys REALLY Talk About On Boys’ Night Out
Hint: it’s sex. Also, sex.

73 Rare Photos From Behind the Scenes of Star Wars
These leaked photos capture images of Yoda before he was finished, the building of the actual, on-set Millennium Falcon and, of course, the entire cast flirting with Princess Leia.

11 Wedding Themes That Are Just a Bad Idea
You’d assume that if someone is that big of a Game of Thrones fan, they’d know what happens at weddings, right?

The 47 Greatest Pun-tastic Restaurant Names
It doesn’t make any sense, but food that comes from restaurants with funny names always tastes better. Pulled pork sandwich from KFC? Gross. Pulled pork sandwich from Forrest Rump? Awesome.

The 26 Craziest 2014 World Cup Hair Cuts
Bonus: here is the single most important World Cup ranking you will see all day.

The post Ridiculously Good Looking Celebs Are Licking Popsicles, It Must Be Summer! appeared first on The Ranker.com Blog.

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Pew Research highlights Social, Political and Moral Polarization among Partisans, but more people are still Moderates

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

A recent research study by Pew highlights societal trends that have a lot of people worried about the future of our country.  While many people have highlighted the political polarization that exists and others have pointed to the social and psychological trends underlying that polarization, Pew’s research report is unique for the scope of findings across political, social, and moral attitudes.  Some of the highlights of the report include:

  • Based on a scale of 10 political attitude questions, such as a binary choice between the statements “Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient” and  ”Government often does a better job than people give it credit for”, the median Democrat and median Republicans’ attitudes are further apart than 2004 and 1994.
  • On the above ideological survey, fewer people, whether Democrat, Republican, or independent, are in the middle compared to 1994 and 2004.  Though it is still worth noting that a plurality, 39% are in the middle fifth of the survey.
  • More people on each side see the opposing group as a “threat to the nation’s well being”.
  • Those on the extreme left or on the extreme right are on the ideological survey are more likely to have close friends with and live in a community with people who agree with them.

 

The study is an important snapshot of current society and clearly illustrates that polarization is getting worse, with the social and moral consequences that moral psychology research would predict when attitudes become moralized.  That being said, I think it is important not to lose sight of the below graph from their study.

 

Pew Survey Shows a Shrinking Plurality holds Moderate Views

Pew Survey Shows a Shrinking Plurality holds Moderate Views

 

Specifically, while there certainly is a trend toward moralization and partisanship, the majority of people are in the middle of the above distributions of political attitudes and hold  mixed opinions about political attitudes.  It is important that those of us who study polarization don’t exacerbate perceived differences, as research has shown that perceptions of differences can become reality.  Most Americans (79%!) still fall somewhere between having consistently liberal and consistently conservative attitudes on political issues, according to Pew’s research.  And even amongst those on the ends of this spectrum, 37% of conservatives and 51% of liberals have close friends who disagree with them.  Compromise between parties is still the preference of most of the electorate.  If those of us who hold a mixed set of attitudes can indeed make our views more prominent, thereby reducing the salience of group boundaries, research would suggest that this would indeed mitigate this alarming trend toward social, moral, and political polarization.

- Ravi Iyer

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Comparing World Cup Prediction Algorithms – Ranker vs. FiveThirtyEight

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

Like most Americans, I pay attention to soccer/football once every four years.  But I think about prediction almost daily and so this year’s World Cup will be especially interesting to me as I have a dog in this fight.  Specifically, UC-Irvine Professor Michael Lee put together a prediction model based on the combined wisdom of Ranker users who voted on our Who will win the 2014 World Cup list, plus the structure of the tournament itself.  The methodology runs in contrast to the FiveThirtyEight model, which uses entirely different data (national team results plus the results of players who will be playing for the national team in league play) to make predictions.  As such, the battle lines are clearly drawn.  Will the Wisdom of Crowds outperform algorithmic analyses based on match results?  Or a better way of putting it might be that this is a test of whether human beings notice things that aren’t picked up in the box scores and statistics that form the core of FiveThirtyEight’s predictions or sabermetrics.

So who will I be rooting for?  Both methodologies agree that Brazil, Germany, Argentina, and Spain are the teams to beat.  But the crowds believe that those four teams are relatively evenly matched while the FiveThirtyEight statistical model puts Brazil as having a 45% chance to win.  After those first four, the models diverge quite a bit with the crowd picking the Netherlands, Italy, and Portugal amongst the next few (both models agree on Colombia), while the FiveThirtyEight model picks Chile, France, and Uruguay.  Accordingly, I’ll be rooting for the Netherlands, Italy, and Portugal and against Chile, France, and Uruguay.

In truth, the best model would combine the signal from both methodologies, similar to how the Netflix prize was won or how baseball teams combine scout and sabermetric opinions.  I’m pretty sure that Nate Silver would agree that his model would be improved by adding our data (or similar data from betting markets that similarly think that FiveThirtyEight is underrating Italy and Portugal) and vice versa.  Still, even as I know that chance will play a big part in the outcome, I’m hoping Ranker data wins in this year’s world cup.

– Ravi Iyer

Ranker’s Pre-Tournament Predictions:

FiveThirtyEight’s Pre-Tournament Predictions:

The post Comparing World Cup Prediction Algorithms – Ranker vs. FiveThirtyEight appeared first on The Ranker.com Blog.

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Comparing World Cup Prediction Algorithms – Ranker vs. FiveThirtyEight

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

Like most Americans, I pay attention to soccer/football once every four years.  But I think about prediction almost daily and so this year’s World Cup will be especially interesting to me as I have a dog in this fight.  Specifically, UC-Irvine Professor Michael Lee put together a prediction model based on the combined wisdom of Ranker users who voted on our Who will win the 2014 World Cup list, plus the structure of the tournament itself.  The methodology runs in contrast to the FiveThirtyEight model, which uses entirely different data (national team results plus the results of players who will be playing for the national team in league play) to make predictions.  As such, the battle lines are clearly drawn.  Will the Wisdom of Crowds outperform algorithmic analyses based on match results?  Or a better way of putting it might be that this is a test of whether human beings notice things that aren’t picked up in the box scores and statistics that form the core of FiveThirtyEight’s predictions or sabermetrics.

So who will I be rooting for?  Both methodologies agree that Brazil, Germany, Argentina, and Spain are the teams to beat.  But the crowds believe that those four teams are relatively evenly matched while the FiveThirtyEight statistical model puts Brazil as having a 45% chance to win.  After those first four, the models diverge quite a bit with the crowd picking the Netherlands, Italy, and Portugal amongst the next few (both models agree on Colombia), while the FiveThirtyEight model picks Chile, France, and Uruguay.  Accordingly, I’ll be rooting for the Netherlands, Italy, and Portugal and against Chile, France, and Uruguay.

In truth, the best model would combine the signal from both methodologies, similar to how the Netflix prize was won or how baseball teams combine scout and sabermetric opinions.  I’m pretty sure that Nate Silver would agree that his model would be improved by adding our data (or similar data from betting markets that similarly think that FiveThirtyEight is underrating Italy and Portugal) and vice versa.  Still, even as I know that chance will play a big part in the outcome, I’m hoping Ranker data wins in this year’s world cup.

- Ravi Iyer

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Intuitionism in Practice: How the Village Square puts Relationships First

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

Our friends at the Village Square recently wrote an article about how they have been able to bridge partisan divides in their community, based on their experiences at numerous community dinners they put on in their neighborhoods.  Their experience dovetails nicely with what has been found in academic psychology, specifically that any type of attitude change requires appealing to the intuitive side of individuals, in addition to the rational side.  Accordingly, their “irreverently named programs are part civic forum, part entertainment” where they seek first to build relationships to open people’s minds, before attempting to get people to rationally understand the other sides’ arguments.  From the article:

In “The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-minded America is Tearing Us Apart,” Bill Bishop documents how, in nearly all aspects of life, we’ve become less connected to those who don’t share our views – in the churches we go to, the clubs we join, the neighborhoods we live in.

No longer engaging across the aisle with neighbors, there’s little to mitigate the human tendency toward tribalism. Once we’ve demonized each other, the simple act of talking is tantamount to negotiating with evil.

To address this challenge, our irreverently named programs are part civic forum, part entertainment. Each event is casual (the stage is set up to feel like the facilitator’s living room) and involves sharing food. As we begin, we give out two “civility bells,” ask that the audience avoid tribal “team clapping,” and share a quote to inspire our better angels. We welcome fluid audience participation and always try to laugh.

Since we first imagined The Village Square, we have repeatedly returned to the same conclusion: We can’t wait around for Washington to lead on this. It’s in our hometowns, where we carpool to softball games and borrow cups of sugar, where we can most easily have the conversations democracy requires of us.

Recently, there has been a lot of re-examination of social science findings that may or may not replicate, especially in real-world environments.  The fact that social science research that emphasizes the importance of personal relationships in changing attitudes has found real world application and validation is comforting for those of us who would like to leverage this research in reducing morally laden conflicts.  Those of us who would like to mitigate the natural animosity that arises when competing groups are formed would do well to follow the Village Square’s lead and put relationships first.

- Ravi Iyer

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