The Dark Side of Political Engagement. Unsolicited Advice for Brigade Media.

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

I recently read with interest the news that several Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are attempting to “fix” political dialogue in this country through a well funded new venture called Brigade Media.  From this Time Magazine article:

With backing from early Facebook investor Sean Parker, Brigade Media LLC has already raised an impressive $9.3 million in funds to improve civic engagement from the federal level down to state and local politics

Guided by its scrappy startup ethic, Silicon Valley has disrupted entrenched industries from hotels to rental cars to pizza delivery, but a group of tech barons are raising the stakes with what may be their biggest challenge yet: American democracy.

As someone whose primary identity bridges the worlds of tech startups and using social science to bring people together, I’m excited to see where this effort leads.  However, I would caution tech entrepreneurs about confounding moral engagement with more productive disagreement, given research on the dark side of moral conviction.  Specifically, research in social psychology suggests that as people get more morally engaged with an issue, they also may become more rigid about those beliefs.  That is not to say that civic engagement is destined to decrease civility, but rather to highlight the potential pitfall in equating greater knowledge with more productive disagreement.  Research would suggest that efforts that promote relationships (e.g. see the work that our partners at The Village Square do) and/or promote super-ordinate goals (e.g. the Asteroids Club paradigm), at the same time that they promote civic engagement, may indeed lead to more productive civil debate.

- Ravi Iyer

Go to Source

Comments

comments

More Information does not necessarily lead to Civility

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

A recent article by Ezra Klein at Vox.com eloquently makes an argument that we at CivilPolitics have also done a lot of research in support of – specifically, that if you want to affect many behaviors, you cannot just appeal to individuals’ sense of reason.  The article is well worth a complete read and is excerpted below, but the gist of it details a simple clear study by Dan Kahan and colleagues, showing that individuals who are good at math stop using their rational skills when the use of those skills would threaten their values.

How was this shown?  Consider the below table of results of a hypothetical study on whether a skin cream helps individuals with a rash.  Did the skin cream work well?  Simply scanning the numbers may give you the impression that the skin cream did well, as 225 is the highest number in the chart, yet if you look closer at the numbers, you’d find that the use of the skin cream is actually more likely to do harm than good, when compared to not doing anything at all.  However this kind of logical reasoning takes effort.

math-problem

 

Kahan’s work shows that we aren’t willing to make this kind of effort when the results would conflict with our values.  Specifically, when confronted with a ideologically charged political question (e.g. gun control) framed in the same terms, individual skill at math no longer predicts being good at solving such a problem .  Instead, one’s ideology was the main predictor and this was true for both liberals and conservatives.  From the article:

Presented with this problem a funny thing happened: how good subjects were at math stopped predicting how well they did on the test. Now it was ideology that drove the answers. Liberals were extremely good at solving the problem when doing so proved that gun-control legislation reduced crime. But when presented with the version of the problem that suggested gun control had failed, their math skills stopped mattering. They tended to get the problem wrong no matter how good they were at math. Conservatives exhibited the same pattern — just in reverse.

Being better at math didn’t just fail to help partisans converge on the right answer. It actually drove them further apart. Partisans with weak math skills were 25 percentage points likelier to get the answer right when it fit their ideology. Partisans with strong math skills were 45 percentage points likelier to get the answer right when it fit their ideology. The smarter the person is, the dumber politics can make them.

Consider how utterly insane that is: being better at math made partisans less likely to solve the problem correctly when solving the problem correctly meant betraying their political instincts. People weren’t reasoning to get the right answer; they were reasoning to get the answer that they wanted to be right.

If more information is not the solution to producing civility, than what is?  Our expertise at Civil Politics.org is in social psychology, which often concerns the subtle influences that can affect our non-rational side.  While we are still working on a comprehensive set of recommendations (check our blog for continuing progress and research), our social psychology page details a few simple principles that one can use in addition to providing information.  Specifically, getting people to like each other more can make them more open to opposing arguments.  Providing a non-oppositional framework also creates space that allows for more civil thoughts.  These themes also run through the work of organizations we work with, such as Living Room Conversations and The Village Square, which, consciously or not, effectively use social psychological principles in their work.  Whether you are more convinced by research in the lab, case studies, or a combination, the evidence is clear – more information, by itself, will not bring groups closer together.  To do so requires considering the many emotional and psychological motivations that we all have.

- Ravi Iyer

Go to Source

Comments

comments

Can Colbert bring young Breaking Bad Fans to The Late Show?

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

I have to admit that I thought it was a joke at first when I heard the news that Stephen Colbert is leaving The Colbert Report and is going to host the Late Show, currently hosted by David Letterman.  The fact that he won’t be “in character” in the new show makes it more intriguing, even as it brings tremendous change to my entertainment universe.  However, while it will take some getting used to, looking at Ranker data on the two shows reveals how the change really does make sense for CBS.

Despite the ire of those who disagree with The Colbert Report’s politics, CBS is definitely addressing a need to compete better for younger viewers, who are less likely to watch TV on the major networks.  Ranker users tend to be in the 18-35 year old age bracket and The Colbert Report ranks higher than the Late Show on most every list that they both are on including the Funniest TV shows of 2012 (19 vs. 28), Best TV Shows of All-Time (186 vs. 197), and Best TV Shows of Recent Memory (37 vs. 166).  Further, people who tend to like The Colbert Report also seem to like many of the most popular shows around like Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Game of Thrones, and 30 Rock.  In contrast, correlates of the Late Show include older shows like The Sopranos and 60 Minutes.  There is some overlap as fans of both shows like The West Wing and The Daily Show, indicating that Colbert may be able to appeal to current fans as well as new audiences.

Colbert Can Expand Late Show's Audience to New Groups, yet Retain Many Current Fans.

I’ll be sad to see “Stephen Colbert” the character go.  But it looks like my loss is CBS’ gain.

- Ravi Iyer

Go to Source

Comments

comments

Can Newspapers Emulate the Psychographic success of Magazines?

While newspaper circulation continues to decline, many magazines have held their own in the digital age. Magazines differ from newspapers in that they have a more defined “identity”, such that Chip Conley (who now helps run a similar effort at AirBNB) developed successful boutique hotels around the concept of a magazine.

“We determine which magazines will best define the hotel, and then we come up with the five adjectives that best describe that magazine,” explained Conley in a recent Forbes interview.  ”We’ve found that the people who fall in love with a hotel are people who use those five adjectives to aspirationally describe themselves. The Hotel Rex, in San Francisco, is based on The New Yorker, and the adjectives are “clever, literate, artistic, worldly and sophisticated.” When you check out of the Rex you feel like we’ve refreshed your identity. We’ve created an ideal habitat for you.”

There is a lot of research detailing how, as societal wealth increases, consumers’ needs are moving out of the realm of utility and into the realm of lifestyle and aspiration.  Newspapers can’t compete by being simply informational, in a world where information is cheap and ubiquitous.  What aspirational values can a newspaper help a reader fulfill?

A lot of my research has been about showing that different people have very different aspirational goals (values), not just goals that people in California deem readily aspirational like feeding the poor or achieving world peace, but also goals like being loyal to their group, keeping faith with family traditions, providing for one’s family, achieving success, etc.  These later aspirational goals (among others) may prove more fruitful in a more conservative environment.  The Army has a good case study in the use of such values toward achieving organizational goals.  I would definitely recommend that forward thinking newspapers attempt to fill a specific aspirational niche, as a result.

Once a niche is decided, a news organization can consciously leverage the fact that these goals have specific storytelling and emotional triggers.  For example, in work that I’ve been doing with Zenzi‘s Social Values project, our research indicates that newspapers that wants to serve more traditional aspirations may want to have more stories with happy endings, while a newspaper that wants to serve more hedonistic aspirations might want to instead consider featuring stories about people from far away places.  Emotions such as disgust, empathy, and anger vary widely and predictably amongst people with different aspirational goals and stories could be framed accordingly.  Editors likely have an intuitive sense of these relationships, but making them more explicit can bring cohesion to marketing, editorial, and journalistic practices toward a singular newspaper voice that better speaks to the higher-order needs of consumers in the modern age.

- Ravi Iyer
ps. Groups that wish to learn more about similar insights may wish to visit Zenzi’s Insights page.

Comments

comments

Ukrainians Illustrate how Super-Ordinate Goals Unite Groups

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

A relatively mature area of social psychology shows how competition breeds contempt and cooperation breeds liking.  This is a rather intuitive and simplistic finding, yet there are likely things that competing groups can do to foster cooperation that they may not be considering.  Just as brothers may fight, but unite against outsiders to their family, so too may competitors unite in the face of some super-ordinate goal.  Sometimes such a goal just needs to be made salient.

Vladimir Putin is making such a goal salient in the Ukraine.  From this New York Times article:

“Yanukovych freed Ukraine and Putin is uniting it,” said Iegor Soboliev, a 37-year-old ethnic Russian who heads a government commission to vet officials of the former regime. “Ukraine is functioning not through its government but through the self-organization of its people and their sense of human decency.”

Mr. Soboliev is a former investigative journalist who grew frustrated that carefully documented revelations of government misbehavior — which he says “wasn’t merely corruption, it was marauding” — were having no impact. He and a few friends formed Volya, a movement dedicated to creating a country of “responsible citizens” and a “state worthy of their trust.”

“People in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk are coming out to defend their country,” Mr. Soboliev said. “They have never liked the western Ukrainian, Galician point of view. But they are showing themselves to be equally patriotic. They are defending their country from foreign aggression. Fantastical things are happening.”

Just as in American history, where people rally around the flag in the face of external threats, so too are Ukrainians uniting at a time which could be marked by competition to fill a power vacuum.  This is one area where ecologically valid examples mirror lab studies of the importance of super-ordinate goals in uniting groups.  People who want to unite groups that may otherwise be prone to less productive competitive behavior may want to consider following Putin’s lead and introducing super-ordinate goals amongst would-be enemies.

- Ravi Iyer

Go to Source

Comments

comments

Moral Foundations of Windows vs. Mac Users

Recently, the topic came up of whether values profiles (and Moral Foundation Scores more specifically) predict behavior.  On the one hand, social and contextual factors often loom larger than individual factors in determining moral behavior.  On the other hand, it seemed rather unlikely that something as central as a persons values would not predict their behavior.  While the effects may be small and indirect in many cases, I would expect a person’s value profile to predict almost everything they do in life.  As a test case, I decided to examine whether moral foundation scores, which measure how much a person cares about harming others, fairness, obeying authority, being loyal, and being pure, in the context of moral judgments, predict whether a visitor to YourMorals.org visited using a Mac vs. a PC.  Below is the graph.

The Values Profile of Mac vs. PC Users

The Values Profile of Mac vs. PC Users

While all visitors to YourMorals.org are generally liberal, it looks as if Windows users are more conservative than Mac users, within this group.  Note that while this isn’t a representative sample, in some ways it is better for answering this question as the users in this sample have such similar characteristics that many variables are naturally controlled for.  Windows users appear to value harm less and purity more.

The take home message for me is that while context certainly matters, so to does a person’s values, even for relatively unrelated decisions, such as which computer to use in daily life.

- Ravi Iyer

Comments

comments

People in a Bad Mood Judge Others Harshly…Unless Made Aware of Their Bad Mood

Reposted from this post on the Civil Politics Blog

One of the many great posters I saw at the main conference for Social and Personality Psychology belonged to Mayuko Onuki, a graduate student at the University of Southern California.  I’ll let her introduce the poster herself.


This is a link to the full poster: Onuki_Poster SPSP2014.

Along with colleagues at USC, Onuki analyzed the effects from 55 separate studies which show that people who are sad tend to judge others more harshly.  Beyond establishing the baseline effect, which was indeed significant, they looked at the differences between studies to see what may account for smaller or larger effects.  For those of us who wish to reduce harsh judgments within or across groups, which may be exacerbated by foul moods, the boundary conditions for the effects of mood on judgments are important.  For example, they found that effects were smaller when individuals were aware of the source of their sadness, suggesting that one possible way to reduce harsh judgments among individuals who are in a bad mood is to have them take a moment to consider that the source of their bad mood may not be the individuals they are judging.

Like all research on unpredictable human beings, there are limitations here.  Social science findings are best thought of as parables, giving you evidence for ideas that may or may not apply to your current situation through data-driven, as opposed to narrative-driven stories.  Perhaps the next time you are trying to bring two groups together on a dark rainy day where a foul mood permeates the room, you’ll consider this data-driven parable and consider pointing out the weather.  And maybe the groups you are working with will be a little bit less harsh on each other.  If anyone does have stories which mirror this research, please do contact us.

- Ravi Iyer

Go to Source

Comments

comments

Lists are the Best way to get Opinion Graph Data: Comparing Ranker to State & Squerb

Reposted from this post on the Ranker Data Blog

I was recently forwarded an article about Squerb, which shares an opinion we have long agreed with.  Specifically…

““Most sites rely on simple heuristics like thumbs-up, ‘like’ or 1-5 stars,” stated Squerb founder and CEO Chris Biscoe. He added that while those tools offer a quick overview of opinion, they don’t offer much in the way of meaningful data.

It reminds me a bit of State, another company building an opinion graph that connects more specific opinions to specific objects in the world.  They too are built upon the idea that existing sources of big data opinions, e.g. mining tweets and facebook likes, have inherent limitations.  From this Wired UK article:

Doesn’t Twitter already provide a pretty good ‘opinion network’? Alex thinks not. “The opinions out there in the world today represent a very thin slice. Most people are not motivated to express their opinion and the opinions out there for the most part are very chaotic and siloed. 98 percent of people never get heard,” he told Wired.co.uk.

I think more and more people who try to parse Facebook and Twitter data for deeper Netflix AltGenre-like opinions will realize the limitations of such data, and attempt to collect better opinion data.  In the end, I think collecting better opinion data will inevitably involve the list format that Ranker specializes in.  Lists have a few important advantages over the methods that Squerb and State are using, which include slick interfaces for tagging semantic objects with adjectives.  The advantages of lists include:

  • Lists are popular and easily digestible.  There is a reason why every article on Cracked is a list.  Lists appeal to the masses, which is precisely the audience that Alex Asseily is trying to reach on State.  To collect mass opinions, one needs a site that appeals to the masses, which is why Ranker has focused on growth as a consumer destination site, that currently collects millions of opinions.
  • Lists provide the context of other items.  It’s one thing to think that Army of Darkness is a good movie.  But how does it compare to other Zombie Movies?  Without context, it’s hard to compare people’s opinions as we all have different thresholds for different adjectives.  The presence of other items lets people consider alternatives they may not have considered in a vacuum and allows better interpretation of non-response.
  • Lists provide limits to what is being considered.  For example, consider the question of whether Tom Cruise is a good actor?  Is he one of the Best Actors of All-time?  one of the Best Action Stars?  One of the Best Actors Working Today?  Ranker data shows that people’s answers usually depend on the context (e.g. Tom Cruise gets a lot of downvotes as one of the best actors of all-time, but is indeed considered one of the best action stars.)
  • Lists are useful, especially in a mobile friendly world.

In short, collecting opinions using lists produces both more data and better data.  I welcome companies that seek to collect semantic opinion data as the opportunity is large and there are network effects such that each of our datasets is more valuable when other datasets with different biases are available for mashups.  As others realize the importance of opinion graphs, we likely will see more companies in this space and my guess is that many of these companies will evolve along the path that Ranker has taken, toward the list format.

- Ravi Iyer

Go to Source

Comments

comments

What Psychologists Could Learn From Data Science About Exporatory Research

I recently attended the main conference for social psychologists, even as I’m slowly transitioning to think of myself less as an academic and more as a data scientist.  Of course, the term data science is a pretty poor term as all science has to do with data, but I think it serves a purpose in that there are methods for answering questions with data that operate across the domain where the data was collected.  There is no real reason why a person well trained in understanding and analyzing data can’t apply their techniques on medical data, sports data, psychological data, and online data.  In fact, research on the wisdom of crowds would suggest that any discipline would benefit from analyzing data in different ways as colleagues are likely to make correlated errors concerning understanding anything.  This is certainly true in social psychology, where a common error that has been made is the under-valuing of exploratory research.

To our credit, social psychologists are beginning to understand this.  Many years after Paul Rozin formally published a great article concerning the need for more diverse ways of researching questions, psychologists are starting to accept the idea that exploratory research has value alongside the experimental methods that are so popular.  Below is a picture from one of several such talks given.

photo

It’s great that psychologists are willing to consider exploratory approaches.  However, I don’t think we necessarily need to pretend like we are starting from scratch.  It seems like many psychologists want to simply let people fiddle with data in the haphazard ways they have been doing, label it exploratory, and then get on with “real” (confirmatory) research.  This is an area where data science, with it’s emphasis on how to automatically, efficiently extract well-supported insights from large datasets, has a big head start.  What can data science offer psychologists?

- More efficient exploration.  Running haphazard regressions til you find a good model is inefficient for a number of reasons.  It takes a lot of human effort and then when you do find something, you have no real way to reproduce the algorithm that you used to find the result you did on a subsequent dataset.  To put it in more practical terms, every psychologist who wants to run exploratory regressions should at least understand GLMnet (details of which I’ll put in a future post).

-  Cross-validated exploration.  Data scientists have given a lot of thought to questions of how to be more sure that a result is true, when one is testing so many hypotheses that one is bound to find something by chance.  Cross-validation is not a cure-all, but then again, nor are relatively artificial lab studies.  Certainly a cross-validated exploratory finding is more likely to be true than a non-cross-validated exploratory finding.  Broadly, just as some experiments are greater evidence than less well-designed experiments, so too are some exploratory findings greater evidence than other explorations.  Of course, this last sentence will completely confound those who insist that publications can only publish “true” findings that are supported by p<.05 statistics, which leads me to my last point.

- Bayesian models of findings.   There was a ton of talk about the problem of false positives, but the entrenched interests of the journal system (IMHO) inhibit the paradigm shift that is needed, which is to think of findings and papers as evidence as opposed to truth.  Good publications are not true…they are merely stronger evidence.  And rejected publications are rarely worthless.  Rather, they may be weaker evidence or may not affect prior beliefs to quite the same degree.   Setting a high bar for publication is great for creating a tournament for job seekers.  But it’s a terrible way to find truth in an age where data and research is ubiquitous.  If you want to read a more detailed argument about this, I’d read Nate Silver’s Book.

There are some things that social psychologists are really good at.  They understand experimental methods and can critique them really well.  They understand measurement much better than most disciplines.  But there are some things that other disciplines do much better with data, such as exploration.  The banner of data science presents the opportunity to break down these barriers, so that the social psychologist can help the Google engineer design the perfect study to validate the results of their latest machine learning algorithm, while the political scientist helps the social psychologist with representative sampling and the Google engineer helps the political scientist explore the latest national survey in a far more efficient way and then mash up that data with more ecologically valid social media behavior.  And so, the end result is that there really isn’t a huge need for disciplinarity in an age of big data (which was a theme of Jamie Pennebaker’s presidential address at SPSP).  It actually gets in the way of us all being data scientists.

- Ravi Iyer

Comments

comments

Ranker’s Rankings API Now in Beta

Reposted from this post on the the Ranker Data Blog

Increasingly, people are looking for specific answers to questions as opposed to webpages that happen to match the text they type into a search engine.  For example, if you search for the capital of France or the birthdate of Leonardo Da Vinci, you get a specific answer.  However, the questions that people ask are increasingly about opinions, not facts, as people are understandably more interested in what the best movie of 2013 was, as opposed to who the producer for Star Trek: Into Darkness was.

Enter Ranker’s Rankings API, which is currently now in beta, as we’d love the input of potential users’ of our API to help improve it.  Our API returns aggregated opinions about specific movies, people, tv shows, places, etc.  As an input, we can take a Wikipedia, Freebase, or Ranker ID.  The request needs to be made to http://api.ranker.com/rankings/ with “type” (e.g. FREEBASE, WIKIPEDIA, or RANKER, depending on the type of ID sent) and “id” (the specific wikipedia, freebase or Ranker ID) sent in the URL request, and our API returns JSON by default. For example, below are requests for information about Tom Cruise, using each of these IDs.

http://api.ranker.com/rankings/?id=/m/07r1h&type=FREEBASE
http://api.ranker.com/rankings/?id=2257588&type=RANKER
http://api.ranker.com/rankings/?id=31460&type=WIKIPEDIA (look for wgArticleId in the source of any wikipedia page to get a wikipedia id)

In the response to this request, you’ll get a set of Rankings for the requested object, including a set of list names (e.g. “listName”:”The Greatest 80s Teen Stars”), list urls (e.g. “listUrl”:”http://www.ranker.com/crowdranked-list/45-greatest-80_s-teen-stars” - note that the domain, www.ranker.com, is implied), item names (e.g. “itemName”:”Tom Cruise”) position of the item on this list (e.g. “position”:21), number of items on the list (e.g. “numItemsOnList”:70), the number of people who have voted on this list (e.g. “numVoters”:1149), the number of positive votes for this item (e.g. “numUpVotes”:245) vs. the number of negative votes (e.g. “numDownVotes”:169), and the Ranker list id (e.g. “listId”:584305).  Note that results are cached so they may not match the current page exactly.

Here is a snipped of the response for Tom Cruise.

[ { "itemName" : "Tom Cruise",
"listId" : 346881,
"listName" : "The Greatest Film Actors & Actresses of All Time",
"listUrl" : "http://www.ranker.com/crowdranked-list/the-greatest-film-actors-and-actresses-of-all-time",
"numDownVotes" : 306,
"numItemsOnList" : 524,
"numUpVotes" : 285,
"numVoters" : 5305,
"position" : 85
},
{ "itemName" : "Tom Cruise",
"listId" : 542455,
"listName" : "The Hottest Male Celebrities",
"listUrl" : "http://www.ranker.com/crowdranked-list/hottest-male-celebrities",
"numDownVotes" : 175,
"numItemsOnList" : 171,
"numUpVotes" : 86,
"numVoters" : 1937,
"position" : 63
},
{ "itemName" : "Tom Cruise",
"listId" : 679173,
"listName" : "The Best Actors in Film History",
"listUrl" : "http://www.ranker.com/crowdranked-list/best-actors",
"numDownVotes" : 151,
"numItemsOnList" : 272,
"numUpVotes" : 124,
"numVoters" : 1507,
"position" : 102
}

...CLIPPED....
]

What can you do with this API?  Consider this page about Tom Cruise from Google’s Knowledge Graph.  It tells you his children, his spouse(s), and his movies.  But our API will tell you that he is one of the hottest male celebrities, an annoying A-List actor, an action star, a short actor, and an 80s teen star.  His name comes up in discussions of great actors, but he tends to get more downvotes than upvotes on such lists, and even shows up on lists of “overrated” actors.

We can provide this information, not just about actors, but also about politicians, books, places, movies, tv shows, bands, athletes, colleges, brands, food, beer, and more.  We will tend to have more information about entertainment related categories, for now, but as the domains of our lists grow, so too will the breadth of opinion related information available from our API.

Our API is free and no registration is required, though we would request that you provide links and attributions to the Ranker lists that provide this data.  We likely will add some free registration at some point.  There are currently no formal rate limits, though there are obviously practical limits so please contact us if you plan to use the API heavily as we may need to make changes to accommodate such usage.  Please do let me know (ravi a t ranker) your experiences with our API and any suggestions for improvements as we are definitely looking to improve upon our beta offering.

- Ravi Iyer

Reposted from Ranker Data Blog

Go to Source

Comments

comments